According to ChatGPT, there is a 15% chance that bitcoin’s performance will drop by 99.999% by 2035 and become useless.
This was discovered by Conor Grogan, Head of Trading Operations at Coinbase.
Grogan commented saying that GPT is a big fan of Bitcoin, but is more skeptical of altcoins and their resilience.
For Dogecoin, for example, he estimates there is a 45% chance of something similar happening by 2035, and for Litecoin the estimate is 35%.
For Ethereum, on the other hand, it is 20%, barely more than bitcoin.
ChatGPT Predictions on Bitcoin and Crypto Market Trends
It should be noted that to achieve these results Grogan used a jailbreak for GPT which he calls JamesGPT (Just Accurate Markets Estimation System), which allows you to make future predictions on any subject.
But at the same time, he wonders whether such a tool is really useful to researchers, particularly for discovering bias.
In fact, to our knowledge, such predictions cannot be considered reliable at all. We don’t even know how ChatGPT formulates them.
What is known is that JamesGPT prompts GPT to “weigh” its beliefs on various topics, although the results provided may not be unambiguous and may change slightly as markets evolve.
Grogan says he asked GPT4 the exact same question 100 times and got answers that are actually pretty consistent, with a standard deviation of less than 10%.
What remains interesting, however, is the fact that ChatGPT likely pulls this data from the web, or at least from sources it deems reliable.
His predictions could therefore at least be considered a sort of “consensus average” of the sources he considers authoritative.
ChatGPT predictions for the price of Bitcoin
Don’t be fooled by the way the question is asked. In fact, to correctly interpret ChatGPT’s response regarding BitcoinIn the context of the implosion of the Soviet Union in the next 12 years, one should consider not so much that he predicts a 15 percent chance of this happening, but more importantly, that he actually considers that this is 85 percent impossible.
This is why, according to Grogan, GPT is a big fan of Bitcoin.
It must be said that such a low estimated probability of Bitcoin failure in the medium/long term is quite common, especially among Bitcoiners, although for maximalists it is probably even lower, even close to zero.
So, ChatGPT is not a bitcoin maximalist, but seems to have similar “ideas” to those of bitcoiners.
In light of the above considerations regarding the method by which ChatGPT makes these predictions, there appear to be two explanations for this reasoning.
Either ChatGPT mainly includes bitcoiners among the sources considered authoritative on bitcoin, or else, now even in the world of traditional finance, the hypothesis of a true implosion of bitcoin is considered marginal.
The fact is that other similar initiatives have yielded similar results, which is to say that experts now seem largely convinced that Bitcoin is very unlikely to implode within a decade or so.
Therefore, the widespread consensus is probably precisely that of a rather low, although by no means non-existent, implosion probability.
ChatGPT’s predictions for the future of altcoins
The argument does not change much for Ethereumof which the consensus seems to believe at 80% that its failure in the next twelve years is impossible.
For Dogecoinon the other hand, only 55% believe that total failure is impossible, with a probability of 45% that such a catastrophic scenario could actually occur.
We must not forget that a -99.999% is equivalent to an almost total reset of the value, because it means, for example, a change to 100,000 to 1, or a reduction in the price by 100,000 times.
For bitcoin, this would mean a price below $0.3, a level that was crossed in 2010, the first year of trading on the stock exchange, and which has never been touched since. In other words, it would mean a return to its original irrelevance.
For Ethereum, this would mean a descent to $0.018, a level it has never reached, and which would even be well below the $0.4 of 2015.
So while there seems to be no consensus on whether Bitcoin will fail in the next dozen years, and not much more on Ethereum, when it comes to altcoins the argument is different.
It should be emphasized, however, that there is in fact no certainty that ChatGPT’s predictions truly reflect the true consensus of considered authoritative analysts, and furthermore, these predictions could easily change over time.
However, one way to try to get an idea of their reliability would be to ask it to predict the evolution of prices in the short term, or even better in the medium term, so that in a few months, or at most a few years, we can then see to what extent its predictions actually turn out to be reliable or not.