Deaths and taxes and 21 million Bitcoin. This is what we know to be certain of. The rest is just conjecture. Today I wanted to share my big bets on the upcoming halving. I'm sure I'll be cringing in 4 years at some of these “prophecies”, but some of them will come true. I don't have a ton of data to back up these predictions, some are hunches, others are random. All I know is that the future is weird.
3 Zeta Hash Mining
Based on my mining experience during the previous cycle, I learned a valuable lesson when trying to estimate the hashrate, thinking that the log is not linear. The current hashrate has exceeded my expectations by a long way, so I'm going very long on the next cycle. We're going to see more nation states adopt it and it's going to rip apart. This is how we conquer the stars.
5 Western Hemisphere Countries Declare USDT Legal Tender
Countries with high inflation and unstable currencies are exploring cryptocurrencies as legal tender, like El Salvador. Political movements in countries like Argentina and Venezuela show growing public and legislative interest in digital currencies. Economic reports suggest that the adoption of digital currencies can reduce transaction costs and increase financial inclusion.
Apple integrates Stablecoins into its portfolio
Apple has historically (slowly) adopted new financial technologies, but there is significant user interest in accessing stables alongside traditional banking services in mobile wallet apps. Apple's recent hires and patents in the cryptocurrency and blockchain areas suggest future product offerings, including digital currencies.
Liquid's growth fueled by USDt
Liquid Network's total daily trading volume today is laughable, cut in half, but as stablecoin regulations roll out we will see an insane increase in demand for tether, which will fuel growth liquids. Currently, USDt on cash stands at approximately $36,500,000, or 3.17% of the total USDt supply. ($111,897,000,000). I expect >$1 billion to be issued on Liquid by the next halving or a >2,600% increase. This is a wild guess I am making based on the assumption that the USDt dominoes are falling into place on the other prophecies.
Ordinals still booming
The degenerate NFT market has shown continued interest in “blockchain-based ownership verification,” indicating a promising future for projects like Ordinals. Initial adoption by digital artists and collectors when Ordinals launched suggests long-term viability. Technological improvements in blockchain scalability make it possible to handle large data like that used in Ordinals.
Fees relate to mining revenues at a subsidy of 2:1
As block rewards halve, transaction fees become a larger share of miners' revenue, visible during the last two halvings. Economic models predict that accrued fees will become the dominant incentive for miners as transactions increase. Historical data shows increasing proportions of fees to block rewards with each halving event. I am a maxi rate.
LN will be centralized and 90% compliant
The growth of the Lightning Network is supported by large financial institutions seeking scalable solutions, leading to potential centralization. Regulatory pressures are shaping crypto technologies to favor centralization for easier surveillance. Studies of network nodes show a trend toward centralization as major players establish dominant positions.
E-Cash finds its place on the market thanks to payments from minors
The need for efficient payment methods for minors is driving the adoption of electronic payment solutions offering immediate and inexpensive payments. Pilot projects show promising results for integrating e-money into mining operations. Economic analyzes suggest that e-money can reduce volatility and improve liquidity for miners.
Seed Phrase Security Challenges Due to Neuralink
Neuralink and similar projects explore direct brain-computer interfaces, complicating traditional cryptographic practices. All your seeds belong to machines. New methods for creating seeds without revealing them to machines are becoming essential.
Oil contracts settled on-chain
The use of Bitcoin in commodity trading is growing with successful pilots for on-chain crude oil trading. Countries critical of the dominance of the US dollar are exploring Bitcoin solutions to circumvent traditional financial systems. Technological improvements in Bitcoin have improved its ability to handle complex and large-scale contract settlements.
Bitcoin ETF Surpasses Gold ETF Market Cap
The rapid expansion of the Bitcoin investment market and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in several countries indicate a growing market. Bitcoin's market capitalization sometimes exceeds large companies (FAANG) and traditional assets. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a “safe haven” asset, driving ETF investments. RIP Gold.
Assassination markets regulated by decentralized oracles
More than 100 billion dollars are blocked on “DeFi platforms”, relying on “decentralized applications”. Viability of decentralized oracles for settling bets on real-world events. We will see assassination markets on the irl channel. Probably carried out by swarms of drones.
Reorganization for Epic Sat
We wanted fireworks halved and we didn't get them. In the next halving we will get them. The value of Epic Sat will be huge in the next halving and mining pools that do not participate will be ridiculed.
SV2 only captures 20% of the hashrate
Unfortunately, no one cares. Large pools have no incentive to adopt SV2. Large pools will continue to find innovative ways to monetize blocks, and that doesn't include SV2.
An American state invests in Bitcoin
States like Wyoming and Texas have passed blockchain-friendly laws, laying the legislative groundwork for such investments. Diversifying government treasuries with Bitcoin could guard against inflation, especially if the strength of the dollar fluctuates. Several state treasurers have expressed interest in exploring digital assets as part of financial strategies.
AI Becomes Sentient and Demands Bitcoin
The machine(s) want Bitcoin, not shitcoin.
China bans Bitcoin mining
The previous Bitcoin mining ban in China had a significant impact on the global hash rate and mining landscape. The reestablishment of Bitcoin mining will economically strengthen China's industrial and technology sectors. They will no longer ignore the importance of hashing.
Large replacement becomes a reality, leading to mass deportations
Nationalist movements in Europe have used the theory of the Great Replacement to influence immigration policy. Demographic studies predict significant population shifts, likely to underpin radical political changes. The political gains of parties supporting these theories indicate possible moves toward more radical demographic policies.
Bukele remains president
Bukele's popularity in El Salvador is supported by his bullish Bitcoin economic policies, indicating potential for prolonged leadership. Surveys in El Salvador show high approval ratings for Bukele, especially among tech-savvy demographics. Constitutional or legislative changes will make it easier to extend terms or repeat re-elections.
Bitcoin-Dollar is a documentary
Financial analysts' models predict that Bitcoin's value could exceed $1 million per coin within the decade, given supply and demand dynamics. The price of Bitcoin has historically increased after its halving, supporting predictions of future price increases. Institutional investments are increasing, with large companies allocating portfolios to the cryptocurrency, increasing its legitimacy and demand.
BIP scaling enabled
CTV, LNhance. OPCAT, some BIPs are activated.