Maksim Balashevich, CEO of crypto analytics company Santiment, believes Bitcoin Market conditions after the halving suggest a period of continued redistribution followed by a potential resumption of the uptrend. In a recent reportBalashevich and his team analyzed on-chain data to uncover nuanced behavioral patterns among market participants.
“The present and the future,” Balashevich said in the report, are “a mix of news” for Bitcoin. He highlighted the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) measure, which “reveals similar patterns to those observed during the peak periods of 2013, 2017 and 2021”. Specifically, there appears to be a reluctance to take profits, a trend evident in Santiment's latest charts.
Although some might see this as a sign of strong hands, Balashevich warned that “these 'strong hands' could become fragile” and potentially “mark the bottom once panic sets in.” However, he also noted a more positive indicator in the Dollar Average Investment Age (MDIA) measure, suggesting that the market has been undergoing active redistribution for about 4-5 months.
“This suggests that the market may be preparing to resume the uptrend, which could lead to further redistribution during the typical 12-month cycle seen in recent years,” Balashevich explained. As for who has been buying lately, Santiment's supply distribution data reveals that small holders have primarily been accumulating while whales remain steady.
Mid-sized holders, often called “sharks,” are decreasing their BTC balances, “perhaps in favor of memecoins,” Balashevich joked. He described the current setup as “where one should at least be warned to be careful.”
Looking ahead, the Santiment CEO emphasized that Bitcoin's future prospects vary “significantly depending on your overall investment strategy, portfolio size, and risk tolerance.” Rather than focusing solely on forecasts, he encourages investors to “ask the right questions.”
“The data, combined with your observations and analysis, will guide you to the answers best suited to your situation,” Balashevich advised. By examining historical trends and current metrics such as NRPL, MDIA, and supply distribution, Santiment's research aims to provide a comprehensive view of the complex market forces at play in the post-Bitcoin halving environment.
Although the future remains uncertain, Santiment's analysis suggests that Bitcoin may be ready for further redistribution and potential continuation of the bull marketprovided that market players remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly.